Many, many people, be it a high profile trader from a big bank, or just the average Shitcoin Trader™, have predicted 2018 to become the Year of Cryptocurrencies. Well, that did not happen. Instead, we got a whole year of bear market. Lots of traders got rekt and people lost their investments. And now, with 2018 approaching its bearish end, there’s still no sign of the markets turning. But there are a few signs which may indicate that the bear market is over, soon. Let’s explore what these signs are.
First off, I wanna show you a chart I just made:
As you can see here, what we’re going through right now is nothing new.
If you assume that market cycles actually repeat (or – as I believe – that Bitcoin is sort of “trapped” in a 4-year-cycle due to its halvings… the perfect fundamental to create a hype which isn’t completely baseless), there’s a decent chance that the bear market is approaching its low.
So far, the rally has retraced a bit more than 80% from its all time high, and if you analyze other markets with charts printing similar patterns, you will notice that most rallies retrace anywhere between 80 and 95%. So, if Bitcoin isn’t inherently broken (I don’t consider that an option, to be honest), we can carefully assume that the most part of the retrace is already done.
Of course, it can still go lower (my max pain target is at 2.000 USD), but I consider current prices a good opportunity to start scaling in slowly (read: Dollar Cost Averaging, Investopedia). Setting up a plan to put x amount of USD into Bitcoin every week is a good way to get a decent average over time (just keep in mind: don’t invest more than you’re willing to lose).
So, let’s take a look at the buy indicators:
- media coverage is as bad as it hasn’t been since 2015
- Bitcoin is declared dead for more than 326 times by the time of writing: https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoinobituaries/
- ridiculous price targets on Crypto Twitter: some expect 1000 USD, others even 200 or 0 (note from author: I’d love to see their faces during the next full blown rally)
- The Halvening is getting closer: current estimates say March 2020 and
- last Halving (June 2016), the bear market ended some 10 months in advance
- last but not least: it’s Bitcoin… it won’t just die off. 😉
What do you think? Is it a good time to buy? Wait a bit longer? Or did cryptocurrencies have their peak in 2017 and everyone who buys now will become a bagholder for life? Share your opinion!