Many, many people, be it a high profile trader from a big bank, or just the average Shitcoin Trader™, have predicted 2018 to become the Year of Cryptocurrencies. Well, that did not happen. Instead, we got a whole year of bear market. Lots of traders got rekt and people lost their investments. And now, with 2018 approaching its bearish end, there’s still no sign of the markets turning. But there are a few signs which may indicate that the bear market is over, soon. Let’s explore what these signs are.
This post is for all the great Bitcoin Hodlers out there. Those who bought low and told their friends and colleagues to do the same, and maybe, just maybe got laughed at for buying something as useless as Bitcoin. “It’s a bubble!”, “It has no intrinsic value!”, “It’s dead!” and what not. We have heard it all. People doubted our sanity, wrote blog posts and news articles about how dead Bitcoin was.
It always came back. And I tell you what: it always will. Hodl is a substantial part of Bitcoin; it’s coded right into the protocol: there will ever only be 21 million BTC, and the reward per block is reduced every four years (next Halving will probably occur at some point in 2020 when Germany will become European Soccer Chanpion 😉 ). Price is already beyond good and evil, but it shows no signs of deceleration, let alone an end of the rally. To me, it looks like the really insane part is yet to come.
Now let’s have a look at the chart:
At the end of 2015, when Bitcoin reached its bottom after the recovery from the Mt.Gox pump, I made a plan: I wanted to buy as many Bitcoins as possible, because the major bear phase was over and the market was about to recover. I saw huge upside potential and told my wife about it. Also, I read about Wyckoff back then, realizing how perfectly well the Bitcoin market matches his description of the cycles markets move in. My initial idea was to go take a decent loan from the bank (we’ve had our first baby on our way, so we’d have good reasoning to ask for a loan), but decided to use our own money for speculative purposes, so we wouldn’t end up in debt if the trade goes wrong.
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On approximately November 16th, the Segwit2x fork is scheduled to take place. There’s lots of rumors about what might and what might not happen, so let’s present the possible scenarios here.
Bitfinex has created – not for the first time – so called chain split tokens for that event (BT1 and BT2) which seem to be a good way to track the general sentiment towards the event.
I probably haven’t mentioned it publicly, but in December 2015, I became the most recent member of The Daddy Club™. Got a sweet, little, healthy daughter which changed my life in so many (positive) ways.
Those of you who are already members of said club might know that after birth, 1.) you suddenly become unappealing for anyone who visits you or gets to see you when the baby is with you and 2.) any possible presents and assiduities from friends and relatives go directly to the baby – which is part of the consequence of you becoming unappealing.
So, the baby was there and we got good wishes, congratulations etc from all people around us – and a bit of money here and there, so we can “buy something we need for the baby”. But as we already had most of what we needed, I thought that I could either use that money to buy myself a new notebook (hey, I’m just kidding; I wouldn’t do that!) or invest that money. So I decided to use any money we got from friends and relatives for our baby to directly buy Bitcoins and put it into a wallet, securely stored on a Ledger Nano hardware wallet.